The S&P500 index was down -4.77% for a week.

Week that brought major indices back to the strong support levels that sparked the summer rally.

We believe it can be very important to understand over the next few days whether these levels will resist, leading to a bullish recovery, or whether they will break in favor of further downward pressure.

Looking at specific indicators like S5F

financial index

Current price*

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

FTSE100

7,236

consolidation

7,150

7,500

7,000

7,630

FTSEMIB

22.111

Cons./ Bullish

20,700

23,650

20,000

25,000

DAX40

12,741

Cons./ Bullish

12,840

14,000

12,000

14,460

S&P500

3,873

Cons./ Bullish

3,830

4,200

3,645

4,600

NASDAQ100

11,861

Cons./ Bullish

11,700

13,500

11,100

14,255

DOW JONES

30,822

Cons./ Bullish

30,600

33,300

30,000

35,100

TADAWUL

11,829

consolidation

11,700

12,650

11,250

13,050

FTSE ADX

10.201

consolidation

9,615

10,200

9,160

10,500

DFM

3,489

consolidation

3,270

3,500

3,100

3,730

indicator

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

VIX index

23.61

consolidation

20.00

35.00

11.00

41.00

US Dollar Index (DXY)

109,643

Cons./ Bearish

105.00

110.50

103.00

114.00

US10 year return

3.451%

Cons./ Bearish

2,900%

3,500%

2,500%

3,650%

S5FI*

24.25

Cons./ Bullish

40

80

30

90

We are now in an area where the risk/reward ratio favors upside rather than bearish continuation.

DXY and US10 are strongly stretched up and their possible retracement could bring some relief to the markets.

Given the positioning at strong supports and the general extension of internal indicators, we favor a recovery but await price confirmation.

FTSE 100 (UKX)

The FTSE100 index was down -1.56% for a week

For the coming week we favor consolidation in the 7.230 – 7.330 range

indicators

Relatively quiet week for the UK index, especially compared to its peers.

The price appears to be consolidating well above the strong support at 7.150: should this hypothesis prove true, this would be a very positive figure in the short to medium term.

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

7,236

consolidation

7,150

7,500

7,000

7,630

However, the MACD and RSI leave us slightly skeptical about the possibility of a near-term extension as they are both in negative territory.

We draw attention to the strong depreciation of GBP/USD, which had a positive impact on the weekly performance.

We prefer to remain neutral on the FTSE100 and await a break of either of the 7.230 or 7.330 levels

Support at 7,150

Resistance at 7,500

FTSEMIB (FTSEMIB)

The FTSEMIB index was up +0.07% for a week

For the coming week, we suggest a consolidation in the 22,000 – 22,500 area

indicators

Consolidation week for the Italian index, which we believe could come close to strong in either direction in the near term.

MACD and RSI are also fairly neutral as the first is at 0 and the second is at 50.

While we believe that the recovery that

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

22.111

Cons./ Bullish

20,700

23,650

20,000

25,000

July is very positive in the medium term, we think it’s appropriate to wait for a price confirmation.

Price action from June to date has started a progressive tightening that will lead to a break of the 22,500 level or a drop from 21,500.

For now, we prefer to stay neutral on the FTSEMI and act accordingly on a break of either level.

Support at 21,500

Resistance at 23,650

DAX40 (DAX)

The DAX index was down -2.65% for a week

For the week ahead, we suggest a possible recovery to at least 13,100

indicators

Week re-observing the strong bearish trendline that started in January 2022.

The price is now near the strong support at 12.600 which we believe will once again play the role of a reversal area.

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

12,741

Cons./ Bullish

12,840

14,000

12,000

14,460

MACD and RSI are both negative but we can see positive divergence with the price action as it hit the 12.600 support.

We are currently neutral on the DAX and will consider long setups once we break above 13,250

Support at 12,600

Resistance at 14,050

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P500 index was down -4.77% for a week.

For the week ahead, we suggest a possible recovery to at least 3900-4000

indicators

Week the index retested the strong support at 3.830. Given the strong downside extension and approach to the lower end of the Bollinger Band, we believe there could be a rebound in momentum in the short-term.

MACD and RSI perfectly describe the bearish period of the index, with the first below 0 and the second well below the 50 threshold.

In order to understand when the price can start the long-awaited upward movement, we consider it appropriate to rely on the breakdown of bearish trend lines present in the index: we identify the first one from August 16 (short-term) and the second from January 2022 (long period).

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

3,873

Cons./ Bullish

3,830

4,200

3,645

4,600

For now, we remain neutral on the S&P500 and ready to consider long setups on the break of the short-term bearish trend line, which could see a consolidation above 4,000

Support at 12,600

Resistance at 14,050

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The NASDAQ 100 Index was down -5.77% for a week.

For the week ahead, we suggest a possible recovery to at least 12,200

indicators

Week in which the tech index was rejected by the 50-day moving average (yellow line), again confirming the negative period.

Considering the price restarted in May 2022, we can see a significant sideways fluctuation in the NDX: However, coupled with reaching the lower part of the Bollinger Band, we can expect a slight bullish recovery in the near-term.

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

11,861

Cons./ Bullish

11,700

13,500

11,100

14,255

MACD and RSI confirm the bearish phase as they are both in negative territory: watch if the former stays above the bullish trend line started in May 2022.

We remain neutral on the Nasdaq 100 and emphasize the current situation of uncertainty. It might be worth considering long setups if the price could close above 12,000 by the end of next week.

Support at 11,700

Resistance at 13,500

DOW JONES (DJI)

The DOW JONES Index was down -4.13% for a week.

For the coming week, we are suggesting a possible recovery to at least 31,500

indicators

Week bringing the US index back to the strong support at 30,600 which has only played the role of an upside reversal area a few times.

Although the trend remains down, it is desirable to expect a rebound in strength in the short-term given simultaneous strong support, lower Bollinger Band levels and a desirable reversal candle on Friday.

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

30,822

Cons./ Bullish

30,600

33,300

30,000

35,100

The short-term bearish trendline that started in August 2022 confirms that just a break of 31.500 could then lead to a much more pronounced recovery thereafter.

MACD and RSI confirm the index’s negative period and are both in bearish territory

We remain neutral on the Dow Jones and ready to consider long setups once the 31,500 level is crossed.

Support at 30,600

Resistance at 33,300

TADAWUL (TASI)

The TADAWUL Index was down -0.04% for a week

For the coming week, we suggest a consolidation in the 11,770 – 12,080 area

indicators

Week of significant consolidation for the Saudi index. The price is close to a strong support at SAR 11,700 and a scenario like June 2022 is possible.

MACD and RSI fully describe the uncertainty scenario, with the former below the 0 level (negative momentum) and the latter still below 50 (bearish).

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

11,829

Cons./ Bullish

11,700

12,650

11,250

13,050

Looking at the price action so far, the recent drop below the 50-day moving average (yellow line) does not suggest a possible price recovery in the short-term.

For now, we prefer to stay neutral on TADAWUL to understand if the price can consolidate in the 11,500 – 11,700 area: A similar scenario could indeed offer interesting long setups.

Support at 11,700

Resistance at 12,650

FTSE ADX GROWTH MARKET INDEX (FADGI)

The FTSE ADX Index was up +/- 0.00% for a week

For the coming week, we favor consolidation in the 9.950 – 10.115 range

indicators

Positive week bringing index back close to strong resistance at AED 10,200

The trend reversal that occurred on September 7th is very positive for a bullish continuation, at the same time we should not rule out a possible retracement after the recent upmoves.

MACD and RSI are positive and appear to be supporting the adva

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

10.201

consolidation

9,615

10,200

9,160

10,500

Index value: the first has crossed the 0 line (bullish momentum) and the second is near the 60 level.

The RSI in particular makes us remain cautious on the index and wait for a slight retracement: as in the past, reaching this level has often led to a subsequent decline in price.

For now, we prefer to remain neutral on the FTSE ADX: while pure price action is very positive, we believe that some internal indicators could signal potential short-term weakness.

Support at 9,615

Resistance at 10,200

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDEX (DFMGI)

DFM Index up +3.82% in one week

For the coming week, we are proposing a consolidation in the 3,400 area

indicators

Positive week bringing index back close to strong resistance at AED 3,745

The fact that the price remains above the 50-day moving average (yellow line) is certainly a very important consideration in the short to medium term.

MACD and RSI are positive but signaling negative divergence with price action from mid-August 2022. If on the one hand we experienced essentially flat price during this period, on the other hand we saw a gradual weakening of the internal indicators.

current price

forecast

S1

R1

S2

R2

3,489

consolidation

3,270

3,500

11,250

13,050

A weakening which we think could delay an eventual break to the upside above the AED 3,475 resistance level.

For now, we prefer to stay neutral on the DFM: while pure price action is very positive, we believe that some internal indicators could signal possible short-term weakness.

Support at 3,270

Resistance at 3,475

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